Oil falls again, China in focus

Oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday as concerns over China's health situation intensified while the world's second largest economy is in the grip of a major covid.

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Around 10:30 GMT (11:30 in Paris), the barrel of Brent North Sea for delivery in March, lost 2.25% to 80.25 dollars.
Its U.S. equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery, was down 2.09% to $75.32. The two global crude oil benchmarks have thus started the year with losses of around 6%.

The drop in prices is largely attributed by analysts to fears for black gold consumption in China, as the country is currently facing its worst outbreak of coronavirus cases since the pandemic began. Especially since “despite the relaxation of its zero Covid policy, the Chinese economy is weakening,” notes Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM Energy.

Manufacturing activity in China declined in December for the fifth consecutive month, according to an independent index released Tuesday, as factories were disrupted by contamination outbreaks. The analyst believes that “economic activity and oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer will continue to weaken as it learns to live with the virus.”

In early December, Beijing put an end to its draconian “zero Covid” policy, which imposed widespread screening tests, strict monitoring of travel, and mandatory confinement and quarantine as soon as cases were discovered.

These measures, which have largely isolated China from the rest of the world, have dealt a severe blow to the world’s second largest economy. But the abrupt lifting of the sanitary restrictions has led to a resurgence of infections, which is also disrupting the economic life of the country. At the same time, “fears of a slowing global economy and a strengthening U.S. dollar” are adding to oil’s downward trend, say analysts at Energi Danmark.

Investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s minutes on Wednesday to look for clues on the institution’s monetary policy. Since oil is traded in dollars, a strong greenback reduces the purchasing power of investors using other currencies, and thus weighs on demand.

The United Kingdom is replacing its exceptional tax with a permanent price mechanism, maintaining one of the world’s highest fiscal pressures and reshaping the North Sea’s investment attractiveness for oil and gas operators.
Pakistan confirms its exit from domestic fuel oil with over 1.4 Mt exported in 2025, transforming its refineries into export platforms as Asia faces a structural surplus of high- and low-sulphur fuel oil.
Turkish company Aksa Enerji has signed a 20-year contract with Sonabel for the commissioning of a thermal power plant in Ouagadougou, aiming to strengthen Burkina Faso’s energy supply by the end of 2026.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium resumed loadings in Novorossiisk after a Ukrainian attack, but geopolitical tensions persist over Kazakh oil flows through this strategic Black Sea corridor.
Hungary increases oil product exports to Serbia to offset the imminent shutdown of the NIS refinery, threatened by US sanctions over its Russian majority ownership.
Faced with falling oil production, Pemex is expanding local refining through Olmeca, aiming to reduce fuel imports and optimise its industrial capacity under fiscal pressure.
Brazil’s state oil company will reduce its capital spending by 2%, hit by falling crude prices, marking a strategic shift under Lula’s presidency.
TotalEnergies has finalised the sale of its 12.5% stake in Nigeria’s offshore Bonga oilfield for $510mn, boosting Shell and Eni’s positions in the strategic deepwater production site.
Serbia is preparing a budget law amendment to enable the takeover of NIS, a refinery under US sanctions and owned by Russian groups, to avoid an imminent energy shutdown.
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery selects US-based Honeywell to supply technology that will double its crude processing capacity and expand its petrochemical output.
Iraq secures production by bypassing US sanctions through local payments, energy-for-energy swaps, and targeted suspension of financial flows to Lukoil to protect West Qurna-2 exports.
Restarting Olympic Pipeline’s 16-inch line does not restore full supply to Oregon and Seattle-Tacoma airport, both still exposed to logistical risks and regional price tensions.
Faced with tightened sanctions from the United States and European Union, Indian refiners are drastically reducing their purchases of Russian crude from December, according to industry sources.
Serbia’s only refinery, operated by NIS, may be forced to halt production this week, weakened by US sanctions targeting its Russian shareholders.
Glencore's attributable production in Cameroon dropped by 31% over nine months, adding pressure on public revenues as Yaoundé revises its oil and budget forecasts amid field maturity and targeted investment shifts.
The profitability of speculative positioning strategies on Brent is declining, while contrarian approaches targeting extreme sentiment levels are proving more effective, marking a significant regime shift in oil trading.
Alaska is set to record its highest oil production increase in 40 years, driven by two key projects that extend the operational life of the TAPS pipeline and reinforce the United States' strategic presence in the Arctic.
TotalEnergies increases its stake to 90% in Nigeria’s offshore block OPL257 following an asset exchange deal with Conoil Producing Limited.
TotalEnergies and Chevron are seeking to acquire a 40% stake in the Mopane oil field in Namibia, owned by Galp, as part of a strategy to secure new resources in a high-potential offshore basin.
The reduction of Rosneft’s stake in Kurdistan Pipeline Company shifts control of the main Kurdish oil pipeline and recalibrates the balance between US sanctions, export financing and regional crude governance.

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