Oil falls again, China in focus

Oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday as concerns over China's health situation intensified while the world's second largest economy is in the grip of a major covid.

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Around 10:30 GMT (11:30 in Paris), the barrel of Brent North Sea for delivery in March, lost 2.25% to 80.25 dollars.
Its U.S. equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery, was down 2.09% to $75.32. The two global crude oil benchmarks have thus started the year with losses of around 6%.

The drop in prices is largely attributed by analysts to fears for black gold consumption in China, as the country is currently facing its worst outbreak of coronavirus cases since the pandemic began. Especially since “despite the relaxation of its zero Covid policy, the Chinese economy is weakening,” notes Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM Energy.

Manufacturing activity in China declined in December for the fifth consecutive month, according to an independent index released Tuesday, as factories were disrupted by contamination outbreaks. The analyst believes that “economic activity and oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer will continue to weaken as it learns to live with the virus.”

In early December, Beijing put an end to its draconian “zero Covid” policy, which imposed widespread screening tests, strict monitoring of travel, and mandatory confinement and quarantine as soon as cases were discovered.

These measures, which have largely isolated China from the rest of the world, have dealt a severe blow to the world’s second largest economy. But the abrupt lifting of the sanitary restrictions has led to a resurgence of infections, which is also disrupting the economic life of the country. At the same time, “fears of a slowing global economy and a strengthening U.S. dollar” are adding to oil’s downward trend, say analysts at Energi Danmark.

Investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s minutes on Wednesday to look for clues on the institution’s monetary policy. Since oil is traded in dollars, a strong greenback reduces the purchasing power of investors using other currencies, and thus weighs on demand.

The United States intercepted an oil tanker loaded with Venezuelan crude and imposed new sanctions on maritime entities, increasing pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s regime and its commercial networks in the Caribbean.
OPEC expects crude demand from its members to reach 43 million barrels per day in 2026, nearly matching current OPEC+ output, contrasting with oversupply forecasts from other institutions.
The United States seized a vessel suspected of transporting sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela, prompting a strong reaction from Nicolás Maduro's government.
The International Energy Agency lowers its global oil supply forecast for 2026 while slightly raising demand growth expectations amid improved macroeconomic conditions.
South Sudanese authorities have been granted responsibility for securing the strategic Heglig oilfield following an agreement with both warring parties in Sudan.
TotalEnergies acquires a 40% operated interest in the offshore PEL83 license, marking a strategic move in Namibia with the Mopane oil field, while Galp secures stakes in two other promising blocks.
BOURBON will provide maritime services to ExxonMobil Guyana for five years starting in 2026, marking a key step in the logistical development of the Guyanese offshore basin.
Viridien has launched a 4,300 sq km seismic reimaging programme over Angola’s offshore block 22 to support the country’s upcoming licensing round in the Kwanza Basin.
Shell restructures its stake in the Caspian pipeline by exiting the joint venture with Rosneft, with Kremlin approval, to comply with sanctions while maintaining access to Kazakh crude.
Shell acquires 60% of Block 2C in the Orange Basin, commits to drilling three wells and paying a $25mn signing bonus to PetroSA, pending regulatory approval in South Africa.
Malgré la pression exercée sur le gouvernement vénézuélien, Washington ne cherche pas à exclure Caracas de l’OPEP, misant sur une influence indirecte au sein du cartel pour défendre ses intérêts énergétiques.
Kazakhstan redirects part of its oil production to China following the drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, without a full export halt.
US investment bank Xtellus Partners has submitted a plan to the US Treasury to recover frozen Lukoil holdings for investors by selling the Russian company’s international assets.
Ghanaian company Cybele Energy has signed a $17mn exploration deal in Guyana’s shallow offshore waters, targeting a block estimated to contain 400 million barrels and located outside disputed territorial zones.
Oil prices moved little after a drop linked to the restart of a major Iraqi oilfield, while investors remained focused on Ukraine peace negotiations and an upcoming monetary policy decision in the United States.
TechnipFMC will design and install flexible pipes for Ithaca Energy as part of the development of the Captain oil field, strengthening its footprint in the UK offshore sector.
Vaalco Energy has started drilling the ET-15 well on the Etame platform, marking the beginning of phase three of its offshore development programme in Gabon, supported by a contract with Borr Drilling.
The attack on a key Caspian Pipeline Consortium offshore facility in the Black Sea halves Kazakhstan’s crude exports, exposing oil majors and reshaping regional energy dynamics.
Iraq is preparing a managed transition at the West Qurna-2 oil field, following US sanctions against Lukoil, by prioritising a transfer to players deemed reliable by Washington, including ExxonMobil.
The Rapid Support Forces have taken Heglig, Sudan’s largest oil site, halting production and increasing risks to regional crude export flows.

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