US utilities have now committed to over 160 gigawatts (GW) of new large load demand, representing 22% of the country’s 2024 peak load. This rapid increase is driven primarily by the growth of data centres and energy-intensive operations such as cryptocurrency mining, according to an analysis by Wood Mackenzie based on the latest findings from PJM Interconnection’s Load Adjustment Request (LAR) process.
Growing imbalance between demand and capacity
The study shows PJM-affiliated utilities expect 55 GW of large load growth by 2030, reaching 100 GW by 2037. However, new power generation projects are not keeping pace, creating a widening gap. The analysis reveals that utilities have committed to serving twice the large load growth compared to the planned generation capacity.
According to Ben Hertz-Shargel, Global Head of Grid Edge at Wood Mackenzie, this mismatch could lead to electricity shortages and increased costs for consumers in the Mid-Atlantic region. The report also identifies inconsistencies in utility forecasting methodologies, including differing assumptions on contracted capacity ratios and load ramp-up speeds.
Localised pressure on specific network zones
Virginia has emerged as a major growth hub, although Dominion—widely known for its data centre load—is not among the four utilities forecasting over 11 GW of load growth by 2040. However, three of the top six utilities in terms of new load operate in the state and collectively expect 30 GW of new demand. Regionally, nearly two-thirds of the anticipated demand is concentrated in zones operated by Dominion, American Electric Power (AEP), and PPL Corporation.
Demand surge expected to reverse after 2030
Utilities forecast 2030 as a critical inflection point. Until that year, they expect annual gigawatt additions to follow a 23% compound annual growth rate. After 2030, this rate is projected to turn negative at -22%, suggesting that the surge may be front-loaded over the coming decade.
In response to this acceleration, Wood Mackenzie’s study calls for urgent action to prevent a supply shortfall that could undermine power grid reliability and affordability. The lack of standardised forecasting approaches further compounds the uncertainty surrounding the location and timing of these large loads.
