TotalEnergies has raised its global oil demand forecasts in its annual energy outlook report, expecting continued growth until 2040 before a gradual decline. This revision is driven by multiple factors, including the impact of international public policies and energy security concerns. Notably, developments such as the partial rollback of green subsidies in the United States and the revival of liquefied natural gas (LNG) project licences have altered consumption trends.
The report outlines three scenarios: a current trends scenario, a moderately ambitious “momentum” scenario, and a “rupture” scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement on climate change. According to TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne, while the rupture scenario remains theoretically possible, it is becoming increasingly unlikely due to global political fragmentation and the absence of the international coordination required for its implementation.
Global oil demand outlook
In its current trends scenario, TotalEnergies projects global consumption at 98 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2050, revised up from last year’s forecast of 90 million bpd. This trend is notably influenced by slower electric vehicle sales and continued coal-fired power plant development in Asia, both factors slowing the pace of the energy transition.
Under the momentum scenario, which assumes moderate policy action on climate, oil demand is forecast at 79 million bpd in 2050, compared to 70 million in last year’s outlook. The Paris-aligned scenario sees demand falling to 55 million bpd by 2050—a significant increase from the 44 million bpd estimate presented in the 2024 report.
Impact of policy shifts on energy consumption
Changes in global energy consumption are closely tied to policy decisions across countries. The rollback of renewable energy support measures, as seen in the United States, has contributed to an upward revision of oil demand expectations. Additionally, the increase in permits for new LNG infrastructure is expected to influence short-term oil demand, alongside sustained pressure to ensure global energy security.
