The carbon intensity of the maritime sector could drop by 40% by 2030 according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie. The consulting firm states that this goal can only be achieved after a refresh of the IEEE and EEXI design indices for ships.
In the short term, the report states that the use of marine LNG could facilitate the decrease of carbon emissions from shipping. In the long term, the development of low-carbon fuels should be favored.
Carbon intensity reduced by 40% by 2030
The carbon intensity of the maritime sector could drop by 40% by 2030. This is the objective set by theInternational Maritime Organization (IMO). To do this, the latest Wood Mackenzie report calls for the adoption of two indices.
The first being the Energy Efficiency Design Index (IEEE). The second is the Energy Efficiency Design Index for Existing Vessels (EEXI).
This will require improvements in the efficiency of certain types of vessels and should be implemented from 2023. The changes will affect, for example, very large new container ships and ships over 400 gross tons.
Once the changes take effect, the report predicts a decline in international fuel oil demand. About 370,000 b/d by 2030. And about 0.9 million b/d by 2050.
In addition, an overall reduction in fleet speed would be required. Idle capacity in the tanker market would range from 4% to 6%. This could tighten further with slower steam, which would affect freight rates.
Marine LNG as a short-term solution
The use of marine LNG could also facilitate the reduction of carbon emissions from shipping. We should see a strong increase in its use in this sector during the decade. But according to Wood Mackenzie, this will slow down as low-carbon or carbon-free fuels become more prevalent, as early as 2040.
On the other hand, we would have to wait until 2050 to imagine a democratization of these low or zero carbon fuels throughout the maritime sector. Currently, the availability of supply is constrained, especially since it is largely concentrated on road transport.
Green hydrogen may be one of the answers to this supply problem, or even the long-term solution to decarbonize the entire shipping industry.