The government program focuses on securing fuel supplies and controlling prices in the short term, with import contracts under deferred payment schemes and a gradual targeting of subsidies. The announced reform covers priority uses, particularly public transport, while reducing the fiscal burden. The stated policy maintains social safety nets without abandoning fiscal discipline. The administration has begun consultations with logistics operators and retailers to reduce supply disruptions.
Natural gas: end of the export cycle and shift to transit
The structural decline in national gas production is turning the country into a corridor for Argentine unconventional gas bound for Brazil. Interruptible commercial operations have already been carried out through the Bolivian network, establishing an operational precedent. Recent contract volumes allow up to 2 million cubic meters per day on an interruptible basis. Authorities are negotiating capacity tariffs and interruptibility conditions to stabilize toll-type revenues.
The transit tariff is becoming a regional balancing point: market signals indicate a range of USD 1.40 to 1.90 per million BTU for the 1,200-kilometer passage through Bolivian territory. This tariff structure is compared with lower internal costs on the Argentine side, fueling tripartite discussions on competitiveness. The Ministry of Hydrocarbons, together with Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB), manages capacity allocation and entry-exit points. Brazilian and Argentine operators are aligning nominations with seasonal demand windows.
Lithium: YLB-governed contracts and expected revisions
The agreements signed with the CBC consortium (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited, BRUNP, CMOC) include two lithium carbonate units using Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology, with a combined capacity of about 35,000 tons per year and investments exceeding USD 1 billion. The governance scheme preserves a 51% state share for YLB, in line with the sovereign framework. Another contract with Uranium One Group (Rosatom Group) covers a DLE unit of approximately 14,000 tons per year for an investment close to USD 970 million.
Legal disputes and court decisions have temporarily suspended execution of certain lithium contracts, prompting audits and clarification of financial clauses. The new administration announced a contractual review focusing on transparency, investment obligations, and industrial timelines. Amendments will be submitted to the relevant legislative bodies to ensure legal security. Announced priorities include publication of industrial milestones, verification of DLE performance, and commitments to local content.
Fuels and subsidies: targeted phase-out trajectory
The fuel subsidy reform follows a gradual approach to limit social and logistical impacts. Technical instruments include segment ceilings, dedicated cards for public transport, and tighter controls against fraud and smuggling. Stock stabilization relies on restructured import contracts with financing clauses linked to customs cash flow. Distributors are participating in a restocking plan through regional hubs.
The government plans to align fiscal consolidation with foreign-exchange reserve targets to absorb international price volatility. Financial authorities are evaluating multilateral support options consistent with fiscal discipline. The Ministry of Economy will publish an indicative path for reducing fuel-related transfers. Downstream operators are adopting minimum stock levels and traceability audits.
Macroeconomic framework and financing: credibility sequence
Investors identify conditional access to International Monetary Fund (IMF) support as a credibility anchor, without presuming a formal program. The high public deficit and low foreign-exchange reserves require expenditure prioritization and cash-flow management. Short-term debt payments increase the importance of a coherent economic policy signal. Initial announcements emphasize coordination between fiscal policy, subsidy management, and exchange-rate policy.
Regulatory visibility in energy and mining remains a key criterion for foreign direct investment. Authorities are publishing an audit schedule covering hydrocarbons, lithium, and polymetallic mining. Alignment of permits and environmental assessments aims to shorten approval timelines. Domestic and international banks are adjusting lending conditions for infrastructure and oil-service companies.
Governance and operational actors
The Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE, Supreme Electoral Tribunal) released preliminary results showing a relative majority for the president-elect. The executive lacks a legislative majority, requiring coalitions for bills on subsidies, transit contracts, and mining investment. YLB leads the lithium sector with strengthened independent audits. YPFB is shifting toward an infrastructure-operator model focused on capacity and tariff management.
Companies involved in gas transit include Brazilian marketers and Argentine producers linked to Vaca Muerta. Recent operations confirmed the technical feasibility of the corridor through Bolivian territory. Contract normalization will address firmness levels, penalties, and interruption mechanisms. Offtakers are adjusting portfolios based on seasonal price differentials and regional supply availability.
